Ethiopia and Tigray accuse each of launching offensives, fuelling fears of new war

Ethiopia and the northern Tigray region have accused each other of launching new offensives, igniting grave fears of a renewed and potentially devastating war. Tigrayan forces reportedly seized federally administered airports within the region, while Ethiopia's government claimed advances by Tigrayan fighters into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. This escalation follows months of mutual accusations of violating the peace deal that ended the brutal two-year conflict in 2022, a war that devastated the region and resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths.

Escalation and Accusations Fly

The latest surge in hostilities began with Tigrayan authorities stating their forces were compelled to engage in a "defensive war," a declaration that followed unconfirmed reports of drone strikes within Tigray. Concurrently, Getachew Reda, a high-ranking official in Ethiopia's federal government and former Tigray interim administrator, accused Tigrayan fighters of launching an "all-out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara regions." This dramatic turn of events has shattered the fragile peace established by the African Union-brokered peace accord in late 2022.

Residents in Mekelle, Tigray's main city, reported that local forces had taken control of the city's airport from the national police early on Wednesday. This development led Ethiopian Airlines to immediately cancel all flights to the region, further isolating Tigray and signaling a severe disruption to civilian life and essential services. The precise nature and extent of the reported drone strikes remain unconfirmed, adding to the fog of war and heightening anxieties across the Horn of Africa.

"It is rather heartbreaking to learn that, despite efforts by many, including the international community, to avoid yet another round of war in Tigray, the TPLF leadership early this morning launched an all-out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara."

A Fragile Peace Shattered

The two-year war that concluded in 2022 was one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century, pushing the Tigray region to the brink of famine and leaving a scar of immense human suffering. The peace agreement, while welcomed globally, has always been viewed with caution due to the deep-seated mistrust and the complex political landscape. Recent months have seen a steady increase in cross-border skirmishes and reciprocal accusations of peace deal violations, underscoring the persistent fragility of the truce.

The renewed fighting risks undoing the limited progress made in humanitarian aid delivery and rebuilding efforts. International organizations have consistently warned that any resumption of large-scale conflict would have catastrophic consequences for an already vulnerable population, exacerbating food insecurity and displacement. The memory of widespread atrocities and humanitarian crises during the previous war looms large, fueling international concern over the potential for a recurrence.

Broader Geopolitical Implications and Regional Alliances

Ethiopia's President, Taye Astike Selassie, speaking at the UN General Assembly, alluded to "interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements" without explicit identification, while emphasizing Ethiopia's "immense restraint." His message was stark: "Our message to forces of destruction and mayhem is loud and clear. We urge them to respect the sacred right of the people of the Horn of Africa to live in peace and prosperity." This statement suggests that external actors may be involved or perceived as involved in fueling the conflict.

Adding another layer of complexity, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) announced on Sunday a significant new alliance with six other armed groups across Ethiopia. This coalition aims to collectively challenge the federal government in Addis Ababa, signaling a potential broadening of the conflict beyond Tigray's borders. The formation of this alliance suggests a coordinated opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration, which could destabilize the entire nation.

Humanitarian Concerns and International Scrutiny

The renewed fighting immediately raises critical humanitarian concerns. The previous conflict led to widespread displacement, severe food shortages, and allegations of horrific human rights abuses by all parties involved. Aid agencies are already stretched thin, and a renewed conflict would undoubtedly overwhelm their capacity to respond, potentially leading to a renewed famine. Access for humanitarian organizations, which was already challenging, is likely to become even more restricted.

The international community, which played a crucial role in mediating the initial peace deal, is now watching with alarm. Calls for de-escalation and adherence to the peace agreement are expected to intensify. However, the shifting alliances and the Ethiopian government's stance on external interference present a complex diplomatic challenge, potentially complicating efforts to broker a lasting resolution and provide necessary aid to affected populations. The situation demands urgent attention to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and a relapse into widespread violence.