Are Ethiopians marching back to war in Tigray?

The fragile peace that has held Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement is rapidly disintegrating, as renewed clashes between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government threaten to plunge the nation back into full-scale civil war. Residents in the regional capital, Mekelle, are reporting widespread panic, disrupted communications, and a return to the harrowing uncertainty that defined the brutal two-year conflict that concluded only four years ago. With both sides trading accusations of aggression and mobilizing troops, the international community watches with growing alarm as the hard-won stability of the Horn of Africa faces its most significant test since the signing of the peace accord.

The Erosion of the Pretoria Agreement

The 2022 peace deal was intended to serve as a permanent cessation of hostilities, yet the intervening years have been marked by a failure to resolve core grievances. While the agreement successfully halted the initial wave of violence, it left critical issues—including the status of disputed territories and the full withdrawal of foreign forces—largely unaddressed. Extremist elements within both the TPLF and regional militias, such as the Amhara Fano, have consistently undermined the reconciliation process, viewing the peace as a strategic pause rather than a definitive end to their political objectives.

Recent months have seen a steady deterioration in relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, exacerbated by the TPLF’s decision to reassert control over the regional government earlier this year. This move effectively bypassed the interim administration established under the peace framework, signaling a direct challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s authority. As the federal government responded with increased military posturing and drone strikes, the political space for dialogue has narrowed, leaving military confrontation as the primary instrument of policy.

A Landscape of Shifting Alliances

The current escalation is further complicated by a dramatic realignment of regional actors. During the 2020-2022 war, the Ethiopian federal government relied heavily on support from Eritrea and Amhara militias to counter the TPLF. Today, those alliances have fractured, with the federal government now accusing some of its former partners of coordinating with the TPLF to destabilize the state. This shifting map of loyalties creates a volatile environment where miscalculations by any single actor could trigger a wider regional conflagration.

The conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government has the potential to escalate beyond the country’s borders. Since the war in northern Ethiopia ended in November 2022, no new, stable political order has emerged. Tigray remains suspended between war and peace.

The role of Eritrea remains a particularly contentious point, with reports indicating that Eritrean forces continue to maintain a presence in parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts. The failure to secure a complete withdrawal of these foreign troops has been a constant source of friction, fueling TPLF claims that the federal government is unable or unwilling to protect Tigrayan sovereignty. This perception of abandonment has hardened attitudes within Tigray, making the prospect of a negotiated settlement increasingly remote.

The Human Cost of Renewed Instability

For the people of Tigray, the return of conflict is a devastating prospect that threatens to undo the modest recovery efforts of the last few years. The disruption of internet and telecommunications services has effectively severed the region from the outside world, while the collapse of the banking system has left the population in a precarious, cashless state. Panic buying has become common in Mekelle, as residents brace for the potential of prolonged supply chain blockades and the return of the humanitarian crises that defined the previous war.

The psychological toll on a population that has already endured immense trauma cannot be overstated. Many families are still searching for missing loved ones or attempting to rebuild homes destroyed in the initial conflict, and the prospect of renewed fighting has triggered a wave of fear and displacement. As the federal army and regional forces trade blame for the latest escalation, it is the civilians who remain the most vulnerable, caught in the crossfire of a power struggle that shows little regard for the human cost of war.

Implications for the Horn of Africa

The potential for this conflict to spill over into neighboring regions like Afar and Amhara poses a significant threat to the stability of the entire Horn of Africa. International observers, including the African Union and the United Nations, have repeatedly warned that a return to war in Ethiopia would have catastrophic consequences for regional security and economic development. The failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement fully has demonstrated the limitations of top-down peace processes when they are not accompanied by genuine political reform and local reconciliation.

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community faces the difficult task of re-engaging with parties that have grown increasingly distrustful of external mediation. Without a concerted effort to de-escalate the rhetoric and address the underlying territorial and political disputes, the region risks sliding back into a cycle of violence that could last for years. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current clashes can be contained or if Ethiopia is destined to repeat the tragic history of the recent past.