Will Turkiye end its military presence in northern Iraq?

A Strategic Shift in Northern Iraq

In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, Türkiye has agreed to a gradual withdrawal of its military forces from the Bashiqa-Zilkan base in northern Iraq. This decision, announced following high-level talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the United Nations General Assembly, marks a pivotal shift in the security landscape of the region. The move is part of a broader, reciprocal agreement aimed at stabilizing volatile border areas and addressing long-standing sovereignty concerns that have strained relations between Ankara and Baghdad for years.

The Bashiqa-Zilkan facility, which represents the Turkish military's furthest outpost from its own border, has long been a flashpoint for regional tensions. Established in 2015 under the guise of supporting anti-ISIL operations and training local security forces, the base became a symbol of Turkish military overreach in the eyes of the Iraqi government. By agreeing to hand over control to federal authorities, Ankara is signaling a willingness to recalibrate its regional strategy as it seeks to deepen security cooperation with its southern neighbor.

Addressing the Sinjar Security Vacuum

Central to this withdrawal is a quid pro quo arrangement regarding the Sinjar region, a mountainous area in northwestern Iraq that has been a primary target of Turkish military operations. Ankara has consistently demanded that Baghdad curb the influence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates, such as the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS). These Yazidi militias, while instrumental in the fight against the Islamic State, are viewed by Türkiye as an existential threat due to their ideological and organizational ties to the PKK.

The Iraqi government has recently taken concrete steps to satisfy these security demands, announcing that the Sinjar Resistance Units have agreed to disarm. Under the new framework, eligible fighters from these militias are to be integrated into the Iraqi federal security forces, effectively bringing the region under the direct authority of Baghdad. This move is intended to eliminate the pretext for continued Turkish military incursions, providing a pathway for the restoration of state sovereignty in a region that has been plagued by non-state armed actors for over a decade.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

The timing of this withdrawal coincides with a broader realignment of military forces in the Middle East, most notably the conclusion of the United States' decades-long military presence in Iraq. As the U.S. prepares to finalize the departure of its remaining troops by the end of September 2026, regional powers are scrambling to fill the security vacuum. For Türkiye, the decision to vacate Bashiqa is not merely a concession but a strategic pivot toward a more collaborative, intelligence-led approach to counterterrorism.

In light of the progress Iraq has achieved through security measures, Turkish forces will gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zelikan camp to the Iraqi federal government, in accordance with the agreed-upon mechanism and timeline.

This statement, released jointly by the offices of Erdogan and al-Zaidi, underscores a newfound commitment to bilateral coordination. By establishing a joint military coordination center, both nations hope to replace unilateral military actions with a structured, state-to-state mechanism for managing border security. This transition reflects a pragmatic recognition that long-term stability in northern Iraq requires the active participation of the Iraqi state rather than the indefinite presence of foreign military outposts.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the optimism surrounding the agreement, significant challenges remain in the implementation phase. The history of the Bashiqa base is marked by years of local resentment, with residents and various factions frequently calling for the total evacuation of Turkish forces. The success of the withdrawal will depend heavily on the Iraqi government's ability to maintain security in Sinjar and prevent the resurgence of militant groups that have thrived in the absence of effective state control.

Furthermore, the ongoing conflict between Türkiye and the PKK remains a volatile variable that could disrupt the fragile peace. While the current diplomatic thaw is being hailed as historic, it exists within a complex web of regional interests and historical grievances. Whether this agreement serves as a lasting model for regional cooperation or merely a temporary tactical adjustment remains to be seen, as both Ankara and Baghdad navigate the delicate balance between national security and regional sovereignty.