Heavy fighting on multiple fronts between Ethiopian forces and rebel groups

Ethiopia has plunged back into a state of intense conflict as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) declared a 'full-blown war' against the federal government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This escalation follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, with fighting now spreading across the Amhara and Afar regions. The situation is further complicated by the formation of a new anti-government coalition, which includes the TPLF and several other armed groups, all united by the goal of toppling the current administration. As military operations intensify, reports of drone strikes, telecommunications blackouts, and significant civilian risk have prompted urgent international concern regarding the stability of the Horn of Africa. The federal government maintains a significant military advantage, utilizing a large arsenal of drones and an army of approximately 500,000 troops, while the rebels have engaged in strategic maneuvers, including the seizure of regional airports. The conflict, which previously claimed an estimated 600,000 lives between 2020 and 2022, now threatens to trigger a wider regional crisis as both sides trade accusations of initiating the latest round of hostilities. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed deep alarm over the reports of drone usage and the potential for widespread harm to non-combatants. As the violence continues to unfold, the humanitarian outlook remains dire, with internet disruptions hindering the flow of information and aid to affected populations. The shifting alliances, particularly the inclusion of groups like Fano, mark a significant departure from the dynamics of the previous civil war, signaling a more complex and volatile landscape for the Ethiopian state.