Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw

A New Era of Sovereignty

Iraq has officially entered a transformative period as it marks four days of national celebration known as 'Sovereignty Days,' commemorating the final withdrawal of United States military forces from the country. This departure concludes a complex, two-decade-long security presence that began with the 2003 invasion and evolved into a coalition-led advisory mission against ISIL. For Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, the exit is a cornerstone of his administration's vision to reassert absolute state authority and transition the nation toward a future defined by economic and diplomatic partnership rather than military occupation.

The withdrawal, finalized in late September 2026, follows a 2024 bilateral agreement between Baghdad and Washington to normalize relations. While the government frames this as a victory for national independence, the transition occurs against the backdrop of a volatile regional climate, specifically the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The Iraqi leadership now faces the daunting task of maintaining internal stability while navigating the competing interests of regional powers and domestic armed factions.

The Challenge of Militia Disarmament

Central to Prime Minister al-Zaidi’s strategy is the ambitious goal of disarming all non-state militias by June 2027. These groups, many of which maintain close ties to Iran, have long justified their existence and possession of heavy weaponry by citing the presence of foreign troops on Iraqi soil. By removing the 'occupier' narrative, the government hopes to strip these factions of their political legitimacy and force their integration into the formal Iraqi security apparatus.

However, the path to disarmament is fraught with resistance. Several powerful militias have already signaled their refusal to surrender their arms, setting the stage for a potential domestic standoff. Experts warn that this is a high-stakes political gambit. As Renad Mansour of Chatham House noted, the government's primary challenge is to convince both the public and the international community that Iraq can remain a reliable ally to the West while managing its complex internal security landscape without the direct oversight of coalition forces.

For Baghdad, the political aim will be now to make clear that Iraq wants to remain an ally of the US. In his view, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is concerned that Washington could start viewing Iraq and its Iran-backed non-state militias as too close to Iran, given that the US and Israel are at war with Iran.

Security Gaps and Regional Vulnerabilities

The departure of the US-led coalition has raised significant concerns regarding Iraq’s defensive capabilities, particularly in the realm of air defense and intelligence sharing. While Iraqi counterterrorism forces have demonstrated success in recent operations against ISIL remnants, the absence of coalition air power and logistical support leaves a vacuum that some fear could be exploited. Kurdish leaders, including Masoud Barzani, have expressed apprehension that the withdrawal could mirror the security failures of 2014, when ISIL seized large swaths of territory.

Furthermore, the security landscape is complicated by the continued presence of other foreign actors, such as Turkey, which maintains military interests in the north. The Iraqi government must now manage these external pressures while simultaneously preventing the country from becoming a proxy battlefield for the broader US-Iran conflict. The lack of a robust, independent air defense system remains a critical vulnerability that analysts believe could invite further regional instability if the domestic situation were to deteriorate.

A Delicate Diplomatic Balancing Act

As Iraq moves into this new phase, the government is attempting to pivot from military cooperation to a model focused on development and economic growth. Prime Minister al-Zaidi has emphasized that the state must be the ultimate decision-maker in matters of peace and war, a message clearly intended for both domestic militias and international observers. The success of this transition will depend on the government's ability to enforce its authority without triggering a violent backlash from entrenched paramilitary groups.

Ultimately, the coming months will serve as a litmus test for Iraqi sovereignty. The government has already shown flexibility by extending the disarmament deadline to 2027, a move designed to provide a grace period for negotiations. Whether this strategy of political containment will succeed or lead to a deeper fragmentation of the state remains the defining question for Iraq’s post-coalition future.